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  1. https://www.wikifx.com/sg_en/ As Britain’s economy is eventually recovering after the general election at the end of last year, the market’s expectation is the Bank of England won’t lower interest rate after the monetary policy meeting at the end of this month, thus propping up the pound’s exchange rate. Britain’s Service Industry PMI in December released on Monday indicates steady growth in the service industry, and the central bank is under less pressure to adopt easing monetary policies. The latest data of the service industry seems to suggest that Boris Johnson’s victory in the election last year has reduced the risk of a no-deal Brexit and boosted confidence of consumers and businesses as well. Should the optimism remains in the following months, the Bank of England will likely hold interest rate at 0.75% unchanged. At the moment, policymakers of the central bank are still waiting for more economic data to support their final monetary policy decision. Though the recovery of the service sector can help boost the economy, uncertainties continue to weigh on business investment and it’s estimated that Britain’s GDP growth won’t improve much compared with in the last quarter of 2019. GBP/USD daily pivot points: 1.3120---1.3154 S1 1.3096 R1 1.3212 S2 1.3021 R2 1.3253
  2. https://www.wikifx.com/cn_en/ USDX has rallied on last Thursday and Friday. Tension between US and the Middle East, together with US’ latest sanctions targeting the Cuban Defense Minister challenged the market’s risk appetite and supported demands for risk aversion. Technically, the post-Christmas falling trend of USDX will halt at least for the time being. There’s no signs that the Fed will further cut interest rate in the new year, which can offer US dollar more support. Notably, 2020 is the election year in US, and historical data suggests USD usually fares well on election years, falling only twice in all election years during the past 4 decades. So it may be a good idea to increase holding of US dollar and short euro. USDX daily pivot points: 96.58 S1 96.38 R1 96.78 S2 96.18 R2 96.98
  3. https://www.wikifx.com/cn_en/ Having said goodbye to 2019, the forex market soon entered the first trading day in 2020. Due to the long holiday, the market has not been very liquid at the start of a new year. USD may be largely affected by political factors, while the move of other currencies this week has been signaling further trend. Let’s take a look on the forex market in the first week of 2020. EUR/USD With little doubt, USD remains the most followed currency on the market. 2020 is the election year in the US and whether President Trump will remain in office will largely affect the market. From rewriting the North America free-trade agreement to starting a trade war and imposing high tariffs on other countries, Trump’s economic policies during his presidency have significantly reshaped the global economy, and to certain extent are responsible for its slowdown. Trump has been the third US president in history that faces an impeachment, and market views the impeachment result to be a determining factor for his re-election. As for the election, historical data suggests the dollar usually fares well in the election year, falling only twice in all election years during the past 40 years, while what seemed to be a sell-of in 2012 turned out different than it appeared to be. Though history does not always repeat itself, past experience suggests 2020 may be a good year for the dollar. USD/JPY In analysis at the end of 2019, we mentioned that the sluggish US economic indicators could mean the dollar may experience a down period before the economy rallies in 2020, and this has been proved by the decline of USD/JPY in the past week. Since the beginning of trading session in the new year, USD/JPY has been jittering down-slope, and on January 2nd (EST) the pair further dropped to breach the previous low-point support, suggesting that a even worse situation is imminent. It’s estimated that the exchange rate can be moving toward the low-point during October and early November last year. AUD/USD AUD/USD stayed bullish near the end of 2019, closing at its highest level since July on Boxing Day, and again climbed 90 basis points at the end of the year, pushing the rate of AUD against USD above 70 cents. Much in line with previous estimation, the Australian dollar is a first choice for profit-taking. For the first week in 2020, AUD has breached the previous doji low, which signals a reverse of the trend. But the market is still looking for evidence that a low-point higher than the previous one has formed, expecting for another bullish trend. This can be a very psychologically challenging process. As the new year starts with a fresh outlook, knowing the market trend will help you gain greater advantage in forex trading. Stay tuned as WikiFX brings you more forex updates.
  4. https://www.wikifx.com/cn_en/ Forex broker: Pasifik Futures Visited on: November 29th, 2019 Conclusion: broker really exists On-the-spot investigation Regulatory information suggests that the licensed branch of forex broker Pasifik Futures in Indonesia is at APL Tower Central Park Lantai 30, Jl. LetJend S. Parman Kav. 28 Jakarta Barat, and WikiFX team recently visited the broker at the spot. APL Tower is in Central Park, the 10th largest building in the world located in west Jakarta. Following the GPS we soon arrived at APL Tower and found its striking logo outside the building. The building had very strict security measures and after our identities were verified by the staff, we were allowed to take the elevator to level 30, and according to the directory sign this is where our target is at. The arrows led us to Pasifik Futures’ office, which didn’t appear large and had around 20 cubicles. We thus confirm that Pasifik Futures’ office really exists in Indonesia. Analysis WikiFX continues to explore the brokers in Indonesia, a land nicknamed the Country of Thousand Islands and also has some of the world’s largest buildings, such as the Central Park we’ve just visited. The grand office building of APL Tower where Pasifik Futures is situated left us with a nice impression even before we actually got to the broker’s office. According to its website, Pasifik Futures is a subsidiary of Inter Pan Group and offers customers a variety of financial services in forex, commodities, stock indices and futures. The company not only boasts high liquidity and transparency, but also ensures the safety of clients’ assets by managing them in a segregated bank account designated by the regulation authority Indonesian Derivatives Clearing House(KBI). Meanwhile, Pasifik Futures is also regulated BAPPEBTI and other Indonesian regulators, qualified for forex brokerage business. Conclusion According to WikiFX App, Pasifik Futures is currently under valid regulation with retail forex brokerage license from BAPPEBTI. But its forex license from ICDX is suspiciously a clone. Pasifik Futures is rated 5.95 on WikiFX App, and investors may consider choosing the broker.
  5. https://www.wikifx.com/cn_en/ On January 2nd, the Baht dropped 1.8% against US dollar to 30.226 during Asia morning trading session. This has been the largest decline of the Baht against US dollar since 2007. In February, 1997, international speculators signed a forward contract with the Bank of Thailand and borrowed Baht by the score through mortgage of local assets. They sold off THB for USD on the foreign exchange market; near the end of May in the same year, the Baht’s exchange rate against the US dollar went from 25:1 to 26.6:1 as international speculators began to short the Baht; by the end of June, the Baht against US dollar had breached 28:1; on July 2nd,, 1997, Thai government was forced to cancel the Baht’s exchange rate peg to USD, leading to a 30% decline of THB on the same day and a further plunge of 60% in the next 25 days. In fact, the Baht went up nearly 9% in 2019, but the appreciating of the currency also had some undesirable effect on the economy. For instance, tourists visiting Thailand fell to less than 40 million in 2019. The Bank of Thailand had been trying to control the increase of Baht through a series of measures including interest rate cut and easing of capital outflow policies. Therefore, the market considers that the recent plunge of Baht could be partly attributed to the central bank’s regulative measures.
  6. https://www.wikifx.com/cn_en/ According to historical data from 2007 to 2018, USDX usually fares quite well after market reopens in the new year. Data from 2007 to 2016 is universal to a certain extent. As USDX dropped from 97.40 to the current 96.00 on new year’s eve, there’s a demand for adjustment from a technical perspective, so the possibility of a rally in recent days is very high. Also, according to the latest survey of International Monetary Fund(IMF), US dollar’s proportion in global foreign exchange reserve rose to its highest in the year during Q3, 2019, while the proportion of JPY climbed to the highest in 20 years. Foreign exchange reserves in USD reached 6.75 trillion in Q3, 2019, accounting for 61.78% of the global total. This has slightly dropped from the US$6.79 trillion in Q2, but percentage-wise US dollar’s share in the global foreign reserve had increased from 61.49%in Q2. USD’s share in global foreign exchange reserve was at its highest since Q3, 2018. USDX daily pivot points 96.13---96.19 S1: 95.94 R1: 96.32 S2: 95.78 R2: 96.54
  7. https://www.wikifx.com/cn_en/ Exposed broker: SMGI Global Regulatory status: unregulated Complainant: Anonymous Cause of complaint: investor couldn’t withdraw and suffered heavy losses Recently, investor in Thailand exposed the illegal forex broker SMGI Global through WikiFX and social media like Facebook, accusing the broker for blocking investor’s withdrawal channel and inflicting heavy losses on investor. According to the victim, every rule made by SMGI Global aims to make money from investors’ losses. These include the so called minimum profit guarantee, a time-limited asset guarantee and an irregular contact. The investor lost over 200,000 Bahts during the investment at SMGI Global, and the remaining balance also became unavailable. In the event recap, the victim also warned others about the many irregularities of SMGI Global’s regulation. SMGI Global’s Facebook page has around 2,315 followers, and when browsing the page, WikiFX team noticed that the broker is still advertising for itself by releasing misleading information. For example, the following screenshot shows the historical trading data published by the broker in order to attract more investors, but the seemingly appealing data is in fact very unreliable - it could be generated by the broker from computer programs, as there’s no sufficient evidence to support its validity and authenticity. We tried to visit SMGI Global’s official site(www.smgiacademy.com) and found the website unavailable, which further confirms this broker is non-compliant. WikiFX reminds investors to stay away from SMGI Global, as it bears substantial risks.
  8. https://www.wikifx.com/cn_en/ As Japan enters a 6-day’s New Year Holiday, forex investors are worrying about the risk of another “flash crash”. The USD/JPY pair once tumbled from 108.90 to 104.80 within minutes on January 3rd, 2019. Due to liquidity shortage during the holidays, The Financial Futures Association of Japan has voiced warning about possible risks in this aspect. A red flag to beware of this time is the Turkish Lira(TRY). Data from the Tokyo Financial Exchange shows that individual investors in Japan have been speculating over many currencies, and bullish outlook for the TRY recently prevails the market. Meanwhile, Turkish Lira has fallen over 11% against the yen this year, and should the trend continues, investors’ accounts may face margin close-out. Any market fluctuation can trigger massive TRY/JPY sell-of from individual investors for stop-loss purpose, which may further lead to a surge of the yen. As banks will be closed for the holiday from Tuesday(December 31st, 2019) until January 5th, 2020, investors may not be able to react to margin call or margin close-out. USD/JPY daily pivot points 108.93-109.11 S1 108.59 R1 109.28 S2 108.33 R2 109.71
  9. https://www.wikifx.com/cn_en/ After Christmas, the market gets busy again. Despite the somewhat gloomy previous figures , the first phase of China-US trade agreement had brought some feel-good factors for Christmas. But after the holiday, the market will again face down-slope risks in US dollar which may continue to be the market’s theme in the following months. A trade war hurts both China and the US, so a truce between the two countries will definitely boost market confidence, but that optimism needs to be backed by concrete economic situation, which obviously takes more time to recover. Little economic data was available around Christmas, but data released on Monday still indicates economic slowdown in the US. Key economic indicators in the US appear weak near the end of the year. Though the market expects all major economies around the world to avoid recession in 2020, US economy can face further slump before a rebound. The US Durable Goods Orders released on December 23rd dropped unexpectedly, which weighed down on other manufacturing indicators. Although new home sales rose percentagewise, but in absolute sense the number new homes sold in November had declined compared with that of October. All these weakening figures suggest the USD faces considerable risk of falling back in 2020. Besides, political uncertainty in the country may also affect the market’s response to the US dollar. President Trump becomes the third president in US history to face an impeachment. Although it’s less likely the impeachment will actually succeed given the majority of seats taken by Republicans in the Senate, the incident still puts US dollar in a test. As for currency pairs, the Canadian dollar also declined after its GDP softened. Canadian dollar remains in a strong momentum, but if domestic economic indicators remain sluggish and US economy continues to slow down, the Bank of Canada, which hadn’t cut interest rate in the past few months like many other central banks, will adopt easing policy in 2020. Pound sterling sell-off extends, euro is rallying while Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar continue to rise. But after the previous sell-off, AUD and NZD are considered ideal choices for pocketing profits at the end of the year. Time flies and the year is coming to an end, WikiFX once again accompanied investors throughout the cycle of changing seasons. In the past 2019, WikiFX has always been committed to providing investors with comprehensive broker information and timely forex updates and market trends. For the upcoming 2020, WikiFX will continue to bring investors even better experience through constant innovation and introduce more new functions. Please stay tuned.
  10. https://www.wikifx.com/cn_en/ The global financial market will welcome the new year this week. Although many Wall Street traders who have just enjoyed their Christmas holiday are yet to return to the market, but the sudden changes of the market is quite unexpected. Statistics show that USDX fell below the crucial 97 mark last Friday, while spot gold soared above US$1,515/ounce, breaking its record in almost 2 months. After US’s air strike against Syria and Iraq last weekend, risk aversion sentient again prevails on the global market. From historical data, the week of entering the new year is usually an eventful period. Investors are suggested to follow AUD/JPY’s trend. AUD/JPY pivot points: 76.27-76.39 S1 76.13 R1 76.65 S2 75.81 R2 76.85
  11. https://www.wikifx.com/cn_en/ Broker: Ortega Capital Location: Suite B-01, Lot 6, 1st Floor, SU3104 Jalan Tun Mustapha, 87007 Labuan F.T, Malaysia Conclusion: Broker’s licensed branch doesn’t exist Background Recently, investors reported that the broker Ortega Capital’s address on its official website and its regulatory address on LFSA (Labuan Financial Services Authority) website are inconsistent. The broker also charges a minimum deposit of US$ 5,000, and the demo account registered by new user cannot access the server. At the request of investors, WikiFX survey team decided to visit Ortega Capital’s licensed branch in Malaysia for more details. On-the-spot investigation According to the broker’s regulatory address on LFSA, we found the building where Ortega Capital should be located. Taking a closer look, we found that all the shops in the building were closed, with no one in or out, and there were no signs of business. Is Ortega Capital another "shell company"? In order to ensure an accurate survey results, we went into the building and looked carefully door to door, but failed to find any clues related to Ortega Capital. We thus concluded that the building is empty with no one working there. Conclusion Through our on-site investigation, Ortega Capital’s licensed branch in Malaysia doesn’t exist. Per checking WikiFX App, Ortega Capital’s rating is only 1.29, while the LFSA license it claims to hold is suspected to be a cloned one. The broker is currently without valid regulation, and investors should stay away from it to avoid potential risks.
  12. https://www.wikifx.com/cn_en/ Commodity currencies have performed well this month, especially the New Zealand dollar, which has performed best among the major currencies, and has now risen by nearly 4%. NZD has rose steadily since October, especially after leading indicators, such as business confidence, PMI survey and consumer confidence, have stabilized. Since then, the New Zealand dollar has continued to strengthen, while the good performance of the commodities further supported the currency. The New Zealand government ’s mid-year budget overview shows that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s easing cycle has completed the relay from monetary policy to fiscal policy, offering strong support for NZD; but despite the recent strong rebound, the NZD against USD is still somewhat lagging behind the strong momentum of the fundamentals, as the current price of 0.67 is still below the expected short-term reasonable price of 0.71. NZD/USD daily pivot points 0.6645---0.6657 S1 0.6637 R1 0.6678 S2 0.6610 R2 0.6692
  13. https://www.wikifx.com/cn_en/ We learned that PGWG is a forex broker registered in Australia and New Zealand that claims to be regulated by multiple authorities, offering financial services including securities insurance, fund and forex trading. Yet the broker has been frequently complained against and exposed. Could all its honors and highlights be nothing more than a bluff? Here’s the story of an investor at PGWG. Ms. Xu is a victim of PGWG. She said that she was first introduced to PGWG by Li Jinxi and under Mr. Li’s strong recommendation, Ms. Xu signed up at PGWG and made several deposits, which brought in moderate profits. But since this August, withdrawals first took longer than usual, and then Ms Xu began receiving one withdrawal through several separate transactions. Finally, she could no longer make any withdrawal. She contacted the broker several times about the matter but received no reply. WikiFX experts conducted a risk assessment on PGWG and found that the broker has significant risks. Per checking WikiFX App, we found that PGWG's score is only 2.14 and operates in overrun business, as it’s is not qualified for forex brokerage holding ASIC(Australian)’s license for investment consultation and FSPR(New Zealand)’s license for financial service provider. The broker is currently unregulated and has been marked by WikiFX as a risky broker! In recent years, illegal forex brokers have attempted to disguise themselves as compliant and regulated brokers through publicity campaigns on multiple media channels. Many investors have thus fall victims to these traps. Not knowing enough about illegal brokers is at the root of investors’ gullibility, so if you want to find out whether the broker you’ve chosen is compliant, or if you need to recover your losses after defrauded by scam brokers, you can become WikiFX App member and enjoy our professional assistance and services.
  14. https://www.wikifx.com/cn_en/ January effect is a seasonal pattern of generally uprising stock prices in January. The pattern is quite evident in historical records. For instance, the NASDAQ-100 index had gone up in January for 31 times since 1972. Over the past 3 years, major benchmark stock indices including STP 500, DAX30 index and SSE Composite index have all increased in January. The rising trend in January’s stock market may be partly attributed to investors’ putting their seasonal bonuses into the market, while investors’ mindset is another important factor. Many investors are inclined to establish new investment portfolio in the new year. Historical records of the STP 500 index since 1928 show that the average return rate in January is 1%, lower than that in March(1.2%), April(1.5%) and November(1.5%). On the other hand, average return in September is -0.5%.
  15. https://www.wikifx.com/cn_en/ Broker: Soegee Futures Visited on: November 25th, 2019 Conclusion: broker really exists On-the-spot investigation According to regulatory information, Soegee Futures’ licensed branch in Indonesia is at Graha Selaras LT .3, Jl. K.H. Mas Mansyur No.59 Jakarta, and WikiFX team recently visited the broker at the spot. Mas Mansyur is a renowned business area in downtown Jakarta, and there WikiFX survey team found the destination of this trip - a white office building with the sign “Graha Selaras” outside. We entered the building and followed the directory to the third floor, where we immediately found the striking logo of Soegee Futures. The receptionist gave us a warm welcome after we explained our intention and briefly introduced the company. Soegee Futures is a moderate-size company and has around 20 cubicles, with files stacking up on each office table. We thus confirm that the licensed branch of Soegee Futures truly exists. Analysis Through our recent visits to Indonesia-based brokers, WikiFX found that although not very sizable, most brokers hold retail forex licenses from BAPPEBTI and operate in fully legitimate business. Meanwhile, the rather low visibility of local brokers in the circle has largely stemmed from Indonesia’s overall forex environment. Indonesia's forex regulation started relatively late, while the business capabilities of local forex brokers also need further improvements. As conditions improve from all aspects in recent years, the Indonesian market has a great potential to rise with an amazing speed. According to its official website, Soegee Futures, established in 2003, is an international company specialized in futures investment. It allows customers around the world to trade through a variety of accounts including retail and professional accounts. Soegee Futures holds a retail foreign exchange license issued by BAPPEBTI and is also a member of Jakarta Futures Exchange(JFX) and Indonesia Derivatives Clearing House(KBI). It has more than 15 years of experience in the field of futures investment management and has won numerous awards. Regulatory information shows that the license of Soegee Futures is authentic and the broker is qualified for forex brokerage. Conclusion According to WikiFX App, the broker Soegee Futures is currently in valid regulation, holding license from BAPPEBTI. With a WikiFX rating of 5.97, the broker has acceptable reliability and investors may consider choosing this broker.
  16. https://www.wikifx.com/cn_en/ Gold registered additional growth before Christmas on December 24th. Spot gold rose as much as 1% at one point to US$1500.63/ounce, the highest since November 5th, while spot silver climbed for the 5th consecutive trading day to US$17.787/ounce, breaking the record in nearly 7 weeks. Sluggish US economic indicators and concerns over the trade relation have supported bullish trend in precious metals, while declining Treasury Bond yield has also boosted precious metals’ demand. Near the end of the year, many fund managers may choose to play defence, worrying whether the stock market can maintain its high position. Having hit a record-high in many years, any adjustment of the stock market can pep up gold price; facing the the overall situation where most assets have gained 2-digit growth, being more steady seems like a rational choice. Daily pivot points for gold: 1482--1484 S1: 1480 R1: 1488 S2: 1475 R2: 1491
  17. https://www.wikifx.com/cn_en/ As of the week of December 17th , 2019, net long orders of non-commercial USDX futures decreased by 10,000 lots to 11,600 lots, falling for the 11th consecutive week. Over the past 11 weeks, speculators have reduced a total of 31,000 lots in USD long positions, with a decline of more than 10,000 lots in this week alone. Since June 12th, 2018, the current long position is at the lowest in 79 weeks . In addition to the USDX, speculators are betting on bearish trend of both Canadian dollar and Australian dollar, as report showed CAD net long orders dropped by 9,550 to 11,000 lots and net shorts of AUD increased by 9,770 to 46,000 lots. With the listing of Saudi Aramco, speculators heavily stepped up long orders in crude oil by 67,000 lots last week and added 41,000 lots this week. In the past two weeks, long bets have increased by more than 100,000 lots. Speculators again increased long positions in gold this week, with net longs growing by 15,000 lots to 286,000 lots. For large speculators, the trend of gold is still hard to grasp, and their attitudes have been swinging back and forth in the past 6 weeks. Since October 4th, 2019, net longs in gold has been fluctuating between 253,000 and 290,000.
  18. https://www.wikifx.com/cn_en/ After more than a year’s busy preparation, WikiFX Magazine will be released Hong Kong for the first time! On this special occasion, we’d like to give our sincerest thanks to our clients and business partners for your supports. We hope that the English WikiFX Magazine can become a forex information portal through which investors can have better perspective of the complicated forex market, while we continue to make more efforts for the improvement of forex trading environment and the development of the industry. As a bond that links investors to the forex market, WikiFX Magazine comprehensively features business information, forex updates and business-related articles and offers investors valuable contents through in-depth investment commentaries, analysis of popular forex topics and outlooks of forex industry. “What is forex?” “How to profit through forex trading?” “How to become a successful investor?”...Such may be the recurring topic among investors. Beginners aspire to trade like those more skillful in trading, while the veteran investors may aspire to further polish their trading systems. But whichever level you’re at, you can find something that suits you in WikiFX Magazine. Let’s take a look inside the first WikiFX Magazine in Hong Kong: The most eye-catching exclusive reports that allow you to grasp the latest forex dynamics The most predictive interpretations from experts that help you grasp the market trend The most comprehensive research reports that reveals potential investment opportunities ...... With that being said, not all seemingly lucrative investment opportunities is worth considering. As forex becomes an increasingly popular type of investment, major regulators around the globe are tightening their measures and improving regulatory systems, but many regulatory measures are yet to be implemented. On today’s forex market, countless brokers claim to offer products and services “specially tailored for customers”, and investors have their profits guaranteed once they make deposit. Appealing as these promises may sound, most such products and services are a waste of time at best, and a downright scam at worse. Therefore, choosing a reliable broker is paramount in forex investment. Given the importance of this matter, WikiFX Magazine also includes broker-related contents including WikiFX On-the-spot Investigation, WikiFX Illegal Broker Exposure and WikiFX Monthly Broker Rankings. On-the-spot Investigation records in detail how WikiFX team check the business and regulatory status of brokers through on-the-spot visits to their offices worldwide, while WikiFX exposure reveals the “true colors” of illegal brokers’ beneath their fake advertisements. In addition, WikiFX’s 4 monthly rankings of the top ad-spending brokers, top complained brokers, top visited brokers and top followed brokers are also good reference for investors. It’s also worth-noting that up till now, WikiFX has recorded detail profiles of over 15,000 forex brokers and the information from 31 regulation authorities worldwide. This effectively saves investors more time in looking up a broker, while better protecting their asset safety during trading by offering a transparent, secure and reliable trading environment. Having worked in the forex industry for years, WikiFX strives to a forex market with sound orders. In the past few years, WikiFX established several branches across the globe and remain committed to long-term goals such as researching local market environment and improving data on brokers’ regulation and compliance. Furthermore, WikiFX has traveled to many countries including Britain, Australia, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia, in order to help investors find out more about the business of brokers in reality and avoid potential risks during investment process. Looking ahead, we will remain committed to our mission and strive to live up to expectations of clients, in facing the many challenges on our journey of making WikiFX a quality global forex magazine. We constantly improve the quality of WikiFX Magazine to bring readers better experience, you are more than welcomed to share your comments and advice on the magazine.
  19. https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D The Sino-U.S. trade war has become the focus of the market since it broke out, and the escalating situation year to date has drawn investors’ attentions. Although the scheduled tariff raise was postponed twice, as the trade negotiations continue to deepen, the market generally believes that the tariff decision launched on December 15th will be a turning point in the Sino-US trade war. For China and the United States as global powers, the trade war is actually a "lose-lose" situation, so both sides are also trying their best to reach an agreement and inject confidence into the market. On December 13th, only two days left before the scheduled tariff increase (December 15th). China and the US finally reached a trade agreement after many rounds of negotiations and dialogues. The two sides also confirmed that no new tariffs will be added to each other on December 15th after reaching the first phase of the trade agreement, while lowering some of the existing tariffs for the first time. This signals a thaw of China-US economic and trade relations and easing of the trade frictions. Investors sighed in relief on Monday(December 16th) after the 15th, and the stock market surged higher while Treasury Bond yield also increased. On the other hand, the currency market responded only moderately to the news. Though some currencies like USD/JPY closed higher, AUD/USD and NZD/USD didn’t meet the market’s expectation as both closed unchanged. The point is the current agreement is more like a ceasefire to some extent, while uncertainties remain for the future. The phase one agreement has been reached through a quite bumpy process, with several details still to be refined. According to US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the phase two trade deal may come in stages, which is why the market has been prudent. Investors are worrying that this part of the deal is reversible, while phase two can be another tough battle. Analysts noted that amid the Fed’s cautious outlook, report of weak retail sales and a slumping Empire State Manufacturing Survey on Monday, the dollar still faces major risks of downdraft. As 2019 comes to an end and 2020 approaches, the forex market changing rapidly as always, and WikiFX will continue to release more forex market trends and updates. For more information, please visit WikiFX official website, App or Facebook page.
  20. https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D New Zealand’s economic growth has picked up speed in the third quarter, suggesting an end of the slowdown and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand(RBNZ) may not need to further cut interest rates. GDP increased 2.3% year on year in Q3, higher than the 2.1% growth from last quarter and in line with economist’ expectation. As improving business confidence and rising housing price add to the optimism that the economy has reached, or will soon reach a turning point, and the bets for further rate-cut have been falling. The central bank slashed the official cash interest rate to a record low of 1% this year, and the government also announced a NZ$12 billion(US$8 billion) infrastructure investment plan last week, which can further fuel into economic activities in the election year 2020. A moderately positive GDP in combined with recovering business confidence recently are somewhat reassuring for RBNZ, leading to a more balanced assessment of the central bank on its official cash rate risks. NZD/USD pivot points 0.6590--0.6600 S1 0.6582 R1 0.6619 S2 0.6558 R2 0.6632
  21. https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D Exposed broker: AAFT GLOBAL Regulatory status: unregulated Complainant: Mr. Shi Cause of complaint: investor unable to withdraw Last month, WikiFX exposed illegal broker AAFT GLOBAL whose unauthorized manipulation of investor’s account wiped out investor’s entire account balance. One month later, the broker is again in the spotlight for blocking investor’s withdrawal, while its official website became inaccessible and customer service remained out of reach. Let’s see some more details of the event. Event recap Similar to the previous exposure case, Mr. Shi also opened an account at AAFT GLOBAL through a so-called "financial adviser", but his trading didn’t go well and he soon lost some money due to high market volatility. In order to curb losses, Mr. Shi decided to withdraw the remaining balance, but the withdrawal turned out extremely difficult. When submitting the application, Mr. Shi frequently encountered problems such as website breakdown and application submission failure. After consulting the customer service, Mr. Shi tried again, but found that he could not even enter the amount of withdrawal. Again he tried to contact the customer service via the broker’s website and from his mobile phone, but neither worked. Until now, Mr. Shi still cannot withdraw his account balance. Analysis WikiFX exposed AAFT GLOBAL in an article a month ago, but apparently some investors failed to take the warning. All the exposure articles of WikiFX are based on the real experiences of investors, most of which have suffered heavy losses on illegal platforms, so investors should definitely watch out for these exposed scam brokers. As we mentioned before, AAFT GLOBAL’s official website is clearly flawed, and investors can notice the traps if they take a closer look. Both the Chinese and English versions of the introduction on AAFT GLOBAL's official website offered ambiguous descriptions about the company’s regulation, raising doubts among investors, while its advertisements were also suspected to be misleading. Conclusion According to WikiFX App, AAFT GLOBAL is currently unregulated and has been in business for less than a year. The broker has a low rating of only 1.89 on WikiFX App and bears tremendous risks, so investors should definitely stay away from it. WikiFX have now exposed countless illegal brokers through the articles based on thousands of investor complaints, and investors can draw valuable lessons from these peer experiences. If the broker you’re looking up has been exposed before, please be careful and mind the risks.
  22. https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D The U.S. dollar index rose on Wednesday, with data showing that U.S. industrial production rebounded in November, mainly due to the end of the General Motors strike. Housing starts and building permits both outperformed expectation, and the JOLTS employment data in October was also better than expected, suggesting a strong US job market. Strong economic data reduces the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in 2020. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange(CME Group)'s Fed Watch tool shows that the market expects a 2.2% probability for the Fed to cut interest rates on January meeting, while estimated likelihood of rate cuts in March and April sit at 4.3% and 12 % respectively. The same tool also indicates until December, 2020, there is a 50% chance that interest rates will remain at current level. The USDX has been up for two straight days for the first time since the last week of November and has now recovered a third of its loss in December.
  23. https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D A look-back on 2019 As global financial hubs, Europe, US, China and Japan have a large group of residents keen on investment and a wide client base of forex brokerage, thus being attractive to numerous forex brokers who flocked to expand their business in these area. But looking back on 2019, the global forex market has seen many challenges such as Brexit movement, Hong Kong unrest and the trade conflicts between China and US, as well as Japan and Korea. Many forex companies didn’t survive the series of shocks and went down, leaving investors at heavy losses. This market with a daily trade volume of 6.6 trillion USD offers as much risks to investors as profits, which means investors need to reconsider their strategies in face of these challenges. Outlook for 2020 The upcoming 2020 will again test the forex market and investors as well. As Frank Holmes, the CEO of US Global Investors mentioned when he commented on the prospect of investors, “Saving and investing monthly matter, they should be spontaneous and regular like brushing your teeth. Similarly, you should accumulate your wealth steadily and progressively.” In short, investors need to keep a steady pace in 2020, while closely following the big news and major economic indicators and avoid making impulsive and speculative decisions. Looking ahead, the forex market is still full of untapped potential. The major currencies will depend on bearish factors to gain more momentum, and investors should be more optimistic in seeking a promising currency pair to invest in. US dollar: 2020 can be even more challenging for the US economy, as there will be more negative factors driving a downcast compared with 2019. And with growing political uncertainty in the country that arises from the upcoming election, the economy faces more pressure, which casts a gloomy outlook over the US dollar. Euro: Generally, investors tend to favor underpriced currencies when the price is stagnant on the forex market. According to the Goldman Sachs prediction model, euro is 15% undervalued and thus makes an ideal choice for investors. British pound: The pound soared last week after Conservative Party won the snap election with an overwhelming majority. Market observers sounded upbeat as they believe UK’s economy will rebound at the beginning of 2020 after being sluggish for several months, propping up the pound as a result. Japanese yen: The low interest rate and high liquidity of yen have made it a perfect safe haven asset, in times of greater risks, the yen’s exchange rate may grow instead. But due to a soft global economy, fierce competition of the Asian market and limited room to further ease monetary policy, Japan may face greater risk of economic downdraft than the US. For more forex updates, please download WikiFX App.
  24. https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D As the UK general election settles down, the bearish trend for pound sterling may also come to an end, signaling a rally of the EUR/GBP; currently the market is focusing on how the government amend the Brexit bill. Econometric models show that there is a significant risk premium for the pound, the Swedish krona, and the New Zealand dollar, indicating a growing down-slope trend; the exchange rate of the pound is about 1% higher than the fair value. So as euro bottom out against the pound near 0.8280 level,it is believed that the currency pair will start a strong rebound and eventually rise in the future. EUR/GBP daily pivot points 0.8440-0.8474 S1 0.8405 R1 0.8543 S2 0.8319 R2 0.8595
  25. https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D Broker: MGK GLOBAL Address: Block A, Lot 5, 2nd Floor, Lazenda Phase 3 Shophouse, Off Jalan OK Abdullah, 87000 Labuan F.T, Malaysia Conclusion: the broker’s office is not at the registered address Last year, Japanese Kanto Finance Bureau issued a warning against MGK Global Limited, an unauthorized broker in Labuan F.T, Malaysia that operates brands including MGK GLOBAL and MGK.GLOBAL. Recently, investor reported MGK GLOBAL to WikiFX as a fishy forex broker because the information on its website was quite incomplete and the contact number remained unavailable. On MGK GLOBAL’s website, the broker claimed that it is regulated by the Labuan Financial Services Authority in Malaysia. Is it a lie? In order to guard the safety of investors’ funds and help investors avoid investment risks, WikiFX team decided to visit MGK Global’s licensed branch in Malaysia. [On-the-spot investigation] WikiFX team spent much time and efforts to locate MGK GLOBAL according to the address on its official website. The exterior of this small and old building indicated this place was out of repair and likely deserted. Walking into the building, WikiFX team noticed that there’s no floor directory on the wall, only the signs of two other companies. After a comprehensive search, WikiFX team found nothing related to MGK GLOBAL but a locked door on the 2nd floor. As no one answered when we knocked on the door, we concluded that no one was working there. [Conclusion] Per investigation, MGK GLOBAL’s office is not at the registered address. According to the WikiFX App, MGK GLOBAL is only rated 1.30, and the LFSA regulatory license it claimed to hold is a suspected clone. It has been confirmed that MGK GLOBAL currently has no valid regulation. Please stay away from this broker, lest you lose your money to it!