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  1. https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D No matter who wins the general election next month, the British government will face a new wave of debt up to 1.6 trillion pounds. British Prime Minister Johnson pledged to raise public spending to the highest level since the 1970s, ending the partys decade-long focus on restoring public finance. According to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), UK’s debt equaled 87% of economic output in 2018, more than double of that before the financial crisis in 2008-2009. Britain’s budget deficit peaked during the crisis, slightly above 10% of the GDP. Domestic investors such as pension funds and insurance companies, together with the Bank of England, held the majority of British government bond, thus offsetting the risk of foreign investors sell-off when the circulation increased. In 2017, foreign investors accounted for only 25% of those holding British government bonds. This relatively low share reflects the pound’s declining position on the global market. Foreign institutional investors such as sovereign wealth funds and central banks are instructed to hold only a small amount of pound assets such as British government bonds. Britain no longer has a triple-A rating, and a deterioration of the public finance outlook means that the downgrade is considered a risk, and this does not take into account the election expenses. Daily pivot points for GBP/USD: 1.2931---1.2939 S1 1.2901 R1 1.2961 S2 1.2875 R2 1.2995
  2. https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D US Federal Reserve will soon release the minutes for October’s monetary policy meeting, which had directly led to the Fed’s third rate cut in the year- an action much in line with the market’s general expectations . On the other hand, the Fed has removed “taking appropriate action to maintain economic expansion” from the interest rate statement. The sentence has been in the interest rate statement since June, paving the way for the Fed’s rate cuts. Given that the US economy has rallied more than the market had expected, this change of wording suggests that the threshold for a further rate cut is very high. On November 13th (EST), the US Federal Reserve Chair Powell once again emphasized his optimism about the US economy. He said, "sustained expansion of economic activity, a strong labor market, and inflation near our symmetric 2% objective as most likely.” At the same time, Powell also admitted that uncertainties in the trade sector continue to plague US corporate confidence and business investment, while foreign economic slowdown can also hinder US growth. Policymakers will closely observe all types of economic data to see whether they remain in line with market expectation. In addition, the Fed is not worried about inflation. Although Powell still believes that the inflation rate is close to the 2% target set by the Fed, it is clear that the historical model of the relationship between price and the weak job market no longer prevail. The Fed used to consider a 5% unemployment rate was almost full employment, but now economists must admit that the US economy can operate at a much lower unemployment rate. Besides the Federal decision of interest rate cut announced at the end of October, several key indicators are being released in the US recently: The core CPI rose 0.2%, in line with expectations; PPI rose 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.3%... a series of breakthroughs in important economic data indicate the US economy is rallying, and Fed officials are generally optimistic about the country’s economic situation. Survey data showed that the market estimates a 96% probability for the Fed to hold interest rate unchanged, the remaining 4% implied odds are for 25 basis points. With the release of the Fed’s meeting minutes at the corner, what’s your view about the monetary policy in the future? Stay tuned as WikiFX presents you more forex dynamics and market trend analysis that add to your investment success.
  3. https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D Broker: Makasky Location: Malaysia Regulation: suspected-cloned license Status: not at the regulatory address Address: Unit Level 14(C), Main OFFice Tower, Financial Park Complex, Jalan Merdeka , 87000 Labuan F.T Some investors may remember AL-HIDAYAH, a broker that WikiFX visited in August. Although claimed to be located in room 14(B) &(C) at Financial Park Complex, Labuan, Malaysia, AL-HIDAYAH’s office turned out non-exist at the address. The office belongs to a management firm called Regus instead. When browsing broker’s information online, we accidentally found a forex broker named MAkasky which also claims to be located in 14(C) of the above-mentioned office building. Can that be a coincidence, or is it simply another trap for investors? From WikiFX App, we learned that the broker Makasky, rated at only 1.23 and has been in business for less than a year, is suspected to hold a cloned license. This is a risky broker that can cause investors heavy losses, and we decided to fulfil our obligation of safeguarding investors by check the broker on-the-spot. As we have been here several times, we were familiar with the procedures and quickly filled out the visitor registration form. Coming to level 14, we followed the direction signs and found 14(B) &(C). Again we saw Regus, the management firm, in regular business, but Makasky which claimed to operate in 14(C) was nowhere to be found. Thus we may safely conclude that Makasky is just another unreliable forex broker. Its alleged “LFSA license number” MB/16/0012 is only a registration number, and the broker isn’t regulated by Labuan Financial Services Authority (LFSA). Conclusion: Currently, WikiFX has recorded detail profiles of tens of thousands of forex brokers, while striving to offer investors more comprehensive forex information. Stay tuned as WikiFX presents you more brokers’ visit reports.
  4. https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D Forex traders have been selling AUD after the Reserve Bank of Australia(RBA) released its latest monetary policy meeting minutes, as the minutes showed policy makers had considered cutting interest rates in November. The signal was quickly received by the traders who have been paying close attention to Australia’s economic growth. The key point is that the meeting expects economic growth to be even weaker in the future. The minutes show the market that the RBA is more dovish than people have thought. The next indicator to be closely watched is GDP data scheduled for early December. If GDP data turns out lower than expected, the RBA will be under pressure to cut interest rates next month. After the minutes have been released, Australian 10-year bond yield dropped 5 basis points to the lowest level since November 1st. AUD/USD daily pivot points: 0.6805-----0.6809 S1: 0.6793 R1: 0.6817 S2: 0.6783 R2:0.6831
  5. https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D JP Morgans have gave up making any predictions about whether ECB will cut its rate in the rest of 2019. The company’s report on Friday noted that since September’s basket of easing policies kindled fierce public debates among European policy makers, JP Morgan hasn’t made any forecasts; as there hasn’t been further signals for easing, and it takes time to reach consensus within the ECB board, it’s increasingly difficult to predict ECB’s upcoming actions in December. The next step for the European’s central bank can be launching an evaluation on policy strategy. If postponed until mid-2020, the evaluation may become an excuse for ECB’s passiveness in taking actions. It’s estimated that ECB will likely keep its current position in monetary policy. Meanwhile, ECB hawk Muller said last weekend that should the economic situation in the Eurozone continues to deteriorate, the central bank may purchase even more assets, such as government and business bonds, alongside taking other easing approaches. Overall, it appears that the Euro will remain weak on a side-way trend, and investors may seek right opportunities to trade the pair of EUR/AUD. Daily pivot points for EUR/AUD: 1.6213--1.6233 S1: 1.6182 R1: 1.6245 S2: 1.6160 R2: 1.6286
  6. https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D Recently, WikiFX released the list of top 20 largest ad-spending brokers in November, 2019. Let’s take a look. First of all, let’s look at the largest ad-spenders among compliant brokers. XM (WikiFX rating 9.25) and FXTM (WikiFX rating 8.56) ranked first and second on the list respectively. XM, the No.1 ad-spender for many months in a row, has won countless honors during a decade of business operation. As a world-renowned trading platform, the company allows investors to trade a wide range of commodities including forex, CFD, stock indices, oil and gold. Earlier this year, WikiFX team had also visited XM’s headquarter in Cyprus and confirmed that the company’s office address matches that from the regulatory information. Investors may safely choose this reputable broker. Meanwhile, several other brokers have seen their rankings go up, including Alpari, EightCap, HYCM,FP Markets, FOREX.com, Tickmill and WeTrade, suggesting the efforts these brokers have put into advertising. Advertisement campaign is a generally effective strategy commonly adapted by businesses to increase their brand awareness. However, illegal brokers like BTCC Global are also trying to lure more investors into their traps by increasing spending on misleading advertisement campaign. Investors need to watch out for these brokers and be extremely careful when making investment. Meanwhile, rankings of illegal brokers like FBS, IC Markets and 8BX.COM have all declined compared with last month. These brokers have a series of problems such as holding suspected-cloned licenses, operating without valid license or receiving heavy complaints from investors, and even the large advertisement spending they’ve made can’t cover up their illicit practices or change their non-compliant status. Conclusion As a leading forex media, WikiFX has recorded information of over 14,000 forex brokers. Should you have any questions or doubts about any broker, you may conveniently look it up on WikiFX App to get detailed information about the broker. If you have suffered financial losses from broker scams, you may contact WikiFX customer service and we will try our best to help you recover the lost funds.
  7. https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D Russia is planning to cut the proportion of US dollars in its US$ 125 billion of sovereign wealth fund. Last year, the central bank have made large withdrawal from dollar assets. According to Russia’s Deputy Minister of Finance Kolychev, “Geopolitical risks are one of the major factors for changing Russia’s foreign reserve structure. It’s safe to say that the share of US dollar will decline, and Russia will consider to enlarge its foreign reserve in other currencies, such as Renminbi or the Euro.” Russian president Vladimir Putin urged Russia to cut reliance on US dollar, as the US had stepped up its sanctions over Russia in the past few years. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation sold off 100 billion of dollar assets and purchased Euro and Renminbi, and the measure to diversify the country’s foreign reserve also made Russia the world’s largest holder of Renminbi reserve. Thanks to the steady inflow of oil revenue, Russian’s sovereign wealth fund have increased to US$124.5 billion, currently consisting of 40% US dollar, 30% Euro and 6% British pound. Dmitri Dorkin is the Chief Economist of the International Netherlands Group. He said: “Because the central bank has considerable amount of foreign reserve, it can satisfy the demand of the Ministry of Finance to change the currency structure without market operations.”
  8. https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D The fifth issue of the London Renminbi Business Quarterly Report, jointly released by the City of London and the People's Bank of China in Europe recently, showed that RMB’s average daily forex trading volume in Q2, 2019 reached a record high of 85 billion pounds, up 8.8% from the previous quarter and a 22.9% increase year-on-year. Coincidentally, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) concluded from the statistics in the past 6 months that the nominal value of outstanding forex derivatives has been on the rise, while other derivatives have shown a decline. By the end of June 2019, the nominal amount of forex derivatives totaled US$99 trillion, while brokers from emerging market economies accounted for 9% of the nominal amount of outstanding forex and commodity derivatives, up from 7% at the end of June 2016. Undoubtedly, the forex market, already the world's largest financial market, is still growing rapidly. While the world's major economies maintain their dominance of market share, the emerging market economies are showing their potential through accelerated development. This is particularly evident in the Southeast Asian countries which have made great strides in their financial and forex trading sectors. Although some countries have certain restrictions over forex trading for financial security reasons, the ubiquitous impact of forex industry in an age of accelerating informatization and globalization is hard to ignore, and the booming global forex industry is bound to have far-reaching implications over the economic life of people from these countries, sooner or later. The constant advancement of the forex industry is accompanied with enhancement of regulation. Countries around the world are establishing more institutions to regulate the market and guide the sound development of forex industry. But in such a lucrative market, the existence of illegal brokers also becomes inevitable. Investors still have to stay alert in the current investment environment in order not to fall into brokers’ traps. Asset safety is a prerequisite for making profits in all investments. And as the leading media of the forex industry, WikiFX has recorded detail profiles of more than 13,000 brokers, allowing investors to verify brokers’ qualifications from multiple dimensions. Meanwhile, we also provide vast amount of forex information to guide investors towards a safer forex trading experience. For more information, please visit WikiFX’s official website or WikiFX App.
  9. https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D Latest statistics show that UK’s GDP inched up 0.3% in Q3, 2019, recovering from Q2’s decline and saved from sinking into a technical economic recession. Yet Britain’s economy still faces quite a worrying outlook. In terms of annual rate, UK’s GDP increased only 1% from July to September, the lowest since Q1, 2010. Service sector has created the most momentum for last quarter’s growth, with a 0.4% increase in its output. Construction industry grew by 0.6% thanks to the increase of construction activities, but manufacturing again turned stagnant without any growth in the quarter. Compared with other developed countries, Britain’s annual growth in Q3 lagged behind the US’ 2% growth and France’s 1.3%, but slightly better than the 0.3% increase of Italy. The country’s economy has experienced much uncertainties and different possibilities of the Brexit outlook have affected growth in one way or another. In fact, It may be a bit of overstatement to call Q3’s economic performance a recovery, as many business activities have taken place before October 31st. 2019’s last quarter will likely weaken as business inventories decline. Though employment can prop up the economy to some extent, the weakening capacity of investors remain a problem. The next government has an obligation to revive the current economic situation. GBP/USD daily pivot points: 1.2840---1.2846 S1: 1.2828 R1: 1.2865 S2: 1.2806 R2: 1.2880
  10. https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D Japan’s machine tool orders, a leading indicator of the Japanese economy, is facing . According to data released by Japan Machinery Tool Builders’ Association (JMTBA) on November 12th , orders in October dropped to 87.4 billion yen, a 37.4% decrease year-on-year. The orders have been lower than the previous year for 13 consecutive months and fell below 100-billion-yen (commonly seen as a crucial mark between flourishing economy and recession) for three straight months. October’s orders fell below 90 billion yen, the last time being six years ago. This is lower than the reading of 88.4 billion yen in August. In more specific terms, domestic orders dropped by 42% to 33.4 billion yen, seeing negative growth for 11 consecutive months. Foreign orders decreased by 34.1% to 54 billion yen, declining for the 13th month in a row. In addition to the orders for electrical and precision machinery that have been declining since last fall due to global trade frictions, orders for auto vehicles and other machinery and equipment have also slowed down. Investors may follow the currency pair of AUD/JPY and seek the right trading opportunity. AUD/JPY daily pivot points 74.58---74.72 S1: 74.37 R1: 74.79 S2: 74.23 R2: 75.07
  11. https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D Broker: ACH (New Zealand) Visited on: October 18th, 2019 Conclusion: broker’s office doesn’t exist at the regulatory address On-the-spot investigation Regulatory information shows that New Zealand forex broker ACH is located at Suite 1 Level 2, 20 Northcroft Street Takapuna Auckland, and WikiFX survey team recently visited ACH at the place. Following the map’s direction, WikiFX team soon found the office building in a small business district on the north shore of Auckland. We entered the 2-storey-building, but didn’t find the name of ACH on the directory sign in the first-floor lobby. After coming to the second floor, we still didn’t find the office of ACH. We asked the staff in the nearby office about ACH and was told that they had no idea about this company. Thus we confirm through the visit that the office of the New Zealand broker ACH does not exist at the alleged location. Survey analysis As the country that starts trading earliest everyday on the global market, New Zealand enjoys a significant status on the forex market. In recent years, more and more brokers have chosen to register in New Zealand. However, prudent investors may notice that brokers registered in New Zealand will usually mention 2 different types of regulatory licenses, FSP and FMA, and may wonder about the difference between them. FSP is abbreviation for “Financial Service Providers”, and New Zealand’s legislation requires all individuals and organizations that provide financial services in the country to have FSP registration. Meanwhile, any compliant foreign exchange broker under New Zealand’s regulation must obtain FMA (Financial Markets Authority)’s license for derivative provider, in order to operate on derivatives market. Therefore, a broker with an FSP registration number cannot be considered to be fully compliant; only those who also hold an FMA license are qualified for providing forex-related products and services. Obviously, ACH is taking advantage of investors’ knowledge blind-spot about New Zealand regulation. The broker might have an FSP's registration as it claims, but without a proper FMA license, it is nevertheless unqualified for forex business operations. Conclusion According to WikiFX App, ACH has no valid regulation at the moment and even its FSP registration had already expired. WikiFX has marked ACH as an illegal broker to warn investors against it.
  12. Get more: https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D Exposed broker: KP Regulatory status: operating under cloned license Complainant: Mr. Wu Cause of complaint: investor can’t withdraw Event recap At the beginning of 2019, Mr. Wu was attracted by the advertisement of KP he saw online and signed up at the broker to make investment. Unlike usual trading platforms, KP offers investors a cash account and a KP account. While both accounts will generate profits from spread trading, withdrawal can be made only through the KP account. The growing profits in Mr. Wu’s account made Mr. Wu unwary and he wasn’t alarmed even when he failed to get refund of the withdrawal he applied for in April (withdrawal refund will take no more than 6 months, according to the system notice). By the end of September, KP suddenly made a public announcement to all clients, saying that the withdrawal channel is temporary suspended due to system reasons, and Mr. Wu finally realized something must be wrong. After that he contacted the customer service for several times, yet fail to get any reply. Until now, Mr. Wu still can’t withdraw his balance in the account. Analysis It seems that KP well deserved its position on top of WikiFX’s most complained broker list in September, and Mr. Wu’s experience demonstrates how the illegal broker set investors up. On its website, KP kept boasting about the high profits it can generate for investors in order to lure them into making deposits, and once they take the bait, the illegal broker’s trap in the withdrawal process will be ready to swallow up their deposits. Investors also revealed in their complaints that KP’s alleged partnership with renown companies such as TRADE REAL turned out to be fraudulent, while its trading software is not MT4 software as the official site claims. Moreover, the ASIC ( Australia)’s license for common financial services KP holds is suspected to be a cloned license. In short, information that KP offers in its advertisements and on the website is seriously misleading. Conclusion According to WikiFX App, KP currently has no valid regulation, and its ASIC (Australia)’s license for common financial services is suspected to cloned. With less than 1 year in business, KP is rated at only 1.5 on WikiFX App, and WikiFX suggest investors to stay away from this dangerous and unreliable broker.
  13. More info at https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D Although Mr. Trump wants a weaker dollar, as well as a major shift in Fed policy from increasing to lowering interest rates, the dollar remains strong. These factors that strongly favors short positions only prolongs the dollar’s price adjustment period, and the price that jitters uphill indicates a typical bullish trend. Looking at chart of a longer time-span the rebound in 2014-2015 made the US dollar index break through the long-term downtrend line and this trend line functioned as support in 3 circumstances. Of these 3 cases, the most recent scenario in 2018 is particularly worth noting. The dollar index rebounded after hitting the bottom in 2018, and the side-way trend that lasted for about a year is perhaps just an early break before the upcoming sharp rise; if not even the US Federal Reserve and the US president is able to keep the dollar in a weaker position, it is conceivable how powerful the bullish trend is. When the dollar just began to rally in the early 1980s and 1995, it was also the beginning of gold’s significant decline that lasted for decades. Given that the gold price has gone through several years of horizontal trend, it’s more likely that the market will see a situation similar to that in 1995, when the gold price went over its peak in February and continuously dropped, and it wasn’t until after the price had bottomed out that a new round of strong rally began. As gold surged in the past few months, it’s likely that investors will be blinded by the rising momentum and the spreading market optimism, just like those people who bought gold at a high position in early 1995.
  14. https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D According to the 5th issue of London RMB Business Quarterly, jointly released by the City of London Corporation and People’s Bank of China(PBoC) on November 11th, 2019, daily CNH forex trading volume in Q2, 2019 totaled a record height of 85 billion GBP, up 8.8% from the last quarter and up 22.9% year-on-year. The daily clearing volume at UK’s designated RMB clearing house(China Construction Bank) totaled 43.97 billion yuan from June to August, up 18.4% from the last quarterly. Since it officially began clearing business in June, 2014, the bank has completed a total clearing volume of 40 trillion yuan. Cross boarder settlement of RMB also resumed rapid growth. By the end of August, 2019, cross-boarder RMB payments and receipts reached 370 billion yuan which equals the total in 2018. The offshore RMB exchange centers in London can generate billions of pounds of revenue each year. According to data from Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) in December, 2018, UK accounts for 36% of the RMB global transaction while France and Singapore account for 6% each. London now stands as the world’s largest foreign exchange centre and the second largest oversea clearing centre for offshore Renminbi.
  15. Company’s name: Hirose Financial Visited on: October 17th, 2019 Visited by: WikiFX team Location: U0067, 1st Floor, Jalan OKK Awang Besar ,87000 Labuan F.T, Malaysia. https://jump.wikifx.com/83348CF26389B46D Previous on-the-spot investigation On our last investigation trip, we visited CIMB Bank in Malaysia and confirmed that the company is at the address from its regulatory information and is in business under LFSA regulation. As the “eyes” and “ears” of global investors, WikiFX team conducts spot check on forex brokers and record the results on WikiFX App for the reference of our clients. Upon investors’ request, we’re checking out the forex broker Hirose Financial in Malaysia this time. About the company Hirose Financial is the fully-funded subsidiary of leading Japanese forex company Hirose Tusyo Inc. which has branches in 4 countries offers quality services for over 200,000 global clients. On-the-spot investigation: According to the address from regulatory information, WikiFX team came to the bustling Jalan OKK Awang Besar Street. After searching amid countless shops and buildings, we found the entrance to the building where Hirose Financial is located. As we were walking up the stairs, we found many signs of different sizes, but did not find the name of Hirose Financial. In order not to miss anything, we turned around the first floor and finally saw Hirose Financial’s name next to u0066. Since the door was closed and no one entered or exited, we could not confirm whether someone was working in the office. Visit Summary WikiFX team confirms after the visit that the location of Hirose Financial's licensed branch in Malaysia is consistent with its regulatory address. Its MM license from Labuan Financial Services Authority (LFSA) is under valid regulation and investors may safely choose this broker. Conclusion Until now, WikiFX has recorded profiles of tens of thousands of brokers, while offering investors vast forex information. Stay tuned as WikiFX presents you visit reports of more forex brokers.
  16. Bank of England announced on Thursday, November 7th to hold the interest rate at 0.75%, which is much in line with previous market expectation. Less than 6 weeks away from December’s snap election, opinion polls may be more significant than data and monetary policies. If the Tories can secure a majority of votes and Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal won the support of most members of the Parliament, the pound sterling is much likely to go up. Statistics from US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)shows that for the week ending October 29th,leveraged funds betting on the pound sterling reduced $2.606 billion in short positions of the pound, a six-month low.Most corporations are hedging risks from the interest rate with bonds and are shorting the pound sterling, which remains one of the most undervalued currencies in developed countries. Source: WikiFX App
  17. Name of the company: CIMB Bank Address: Level 14(A), Main Office Tower, Financial Park Complex, Jalan Merdeka, 87000 Labuan F.T., Malaysia. Visited by: WikiFX team Background As Southeast Asia speeds up its pace of opening up its financial market to the world, forex trading has become a popular type of investment. The number of forex investors is growing every year as forex becomes increasingly available for people. According to The Edge Markets, a leading business and financial media in Malaysia, CIMB Group’s annual growth rate of net profit reached 25.1% for 3 consecutive years during fiscal year 2015-2018, the highest growth rate among all entities with market value over 10 billion ringgits in Malaysia’s financial service sector. In recent years, CIMB Bank’s influence on the Southeast forex market expands rapidly, making it a reputable forex broker among investors. In order to help investors learn about the broker in detail, WikiFX decided to visit the licensed branch of CIMB Bank in Malaysia. On-the-spot investigation According to the address from regulatory information, WikiFX team reached Financial Park Labuan Complex. Local residents told us that the complex, covering 12 acres, is the largest business landmark on the Labuan Island. After entering the building, we filled out the visitor registration form as instructed and followed the direction signs to level 14, where we found CIMB Bank’s licensed office in Malaysia. Through the glass door of the office, we saw around 10 cubicles inside, and the working environment looked neat and organized. Investigation summary We confirm after the visit that CIMB Bank’s licensed branch in Malaysia is indeed located at the address from its regulatory information and is currently in business. Conclusion Per checking WikiFX App, CIMB Bank is rated at 5.76 and its 2 MM licenses from Labuan Financial Service Authority (LFSA) are both in valid regulation. Investors may safely choose this compliant broker. Up till now, WikiFX team has visited thousands of brokers across the world, with many visit reports now presented with VR technology. In addition, the WikiFX App has recorded the profiles of over 13,000 forex brokers in order to offer investors comprehensive forex information.
  18. Coming to November, a series of major global events such as ECB President Draghi’s farewell speech, the Fed’s 3rd interest rate cut in the year and the general sluggish trend in global manufacturing continues to stir up the forex market. Here’s a quick look at what’s going on recently that may affect the forex trend. Draghi made his farewell speech In the evening of October 24th (GMT+8), European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi spoke at his last press conference as the central bank’s leader after the policy meeting, while ECB decided to keep 3 key interest rates unchanged, in line with the market expectation. In addition, ECB also reiterates its plan to resume monthly bond-purchase of €20 billion, starting from November 1st, saying that the bond-purchase will carry on until the next interest rate increase, as long as the bank sees it necessary. After the decision was announced, Draghi noted at the press conference that according to latest statistics, Eurozone economy remains weak on the long run with significant down-slope risks, and inflation may continue to decline. Draghi said the ECB may need to maintain large degree of quantitative easing for a longer period and be ready to adjust the policy tools accordingly. Advocating for a gradual expansion approach in financial policy, he also calls for the governments of EU members with more fiscal space to take actions and accelerate economic reform. The Fed cut interest rate for the 3rd time this year US president Donald Trump voiced disappointment about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy on October 24th in a tweet, implying the Fed is too slow in cutting interest rates. As weakening economic indicators recently confirmed US economy is struggling with inadequate investment, the market had expected FOMC to lower the target range of interest rate by 1.5% to 1.75, and the prophesy has been proved as the Fed decided to cut rates once again after much deliberation, in order to tackle the current economic challenges. A sluggish global manufacturing sector US is not alone, as the whole world faces the challenge of economic slowdown. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) indicates sluggish manufacturing across the globe. Japan’s PMI registered the largest decline in 3 years, falling for 5 months in a row, while Australia’s PMI dropped to a record low to just above 50. In the Eurozone, PMI for France also dropped while Germany’s only recovered slightly from a decade’s low in last month. As the world's largest financial market, the forex market is constantly affected by global economic policies. WikiFX will closely track the market dynamics while providing trader comprehensive information of brokers, in order to offer you a safer investment experience. For more information, please visit the WikiFX website or App.
  19. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s new Brexit deal could hit the country’s economy harder than leaving EU without a deal, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), UK’s prestigious independent economic research organization with the longest history. While UK’s economy is estimated to shrink by 5.6%, the deal which Mr. Johnson and EU had agreed upon will likely cost the country around 70 billion pounds. It’s estimated that according to Mr. Johnson’s proposal, Britain’s economic growth will drop by 3.5% in the next decade, which is as much as taking away the economic production of Wales from the total. Even if no significant change happens to UK’s relation with the EU for a while, UK’s growth from 2019 to 2020, estimated at 1.4%, is still lower than the 1.6% growth in 2018, as well as long-term average growth. The UK in a Changing Europe, another British think tank, also estimated that the PM’s Brexit deal will lead to over 6% of decrease in the country’s average income. GBP/USD daily pivot points: 1.2876--1.2890 S1: 1.2859 R1: 1.2921 S2: 1.2821 R2: 1.2945 Source: WikiFX App
  20. China’s economy shows resilience in September thanks to domestic demand and adjustment in monetary and fiscal policies. According to data released on September 30th by National Bureau of Statistics of China, China’s Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) for manufacturing sector in September reached 49.8%, which rallied 0.3% compared with in August.Production Index,New Orders Index, Main Raw Materials Inventory Index, Employed Person Index and Supplier Delivery Time Index all went up accordingly. In comparing with other economies, China also shows robustness in economy. Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone fell back by 1.3% to 45.7% in September, while September’s PMI in US, released by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), dropped 1.3% to 47.8%. Meanwhile, China’s import demand in crude oil matches the overall performance of manufacturing. 41.24 million tonnes of crude oil were imported to China in September, a 11% growth year-on-year. If taking into account the 140 million tonnes of self-produced oil in the first 3 quarters, China’s apparent consumption of crude oil( production plus net imports) reached 510 million tonnes, up by 7.8% year-on-year.The steady growth of China’s consumption and imports helped to prop up oil price. Pivot points for crude oil: 55.22----55.38 S1: 54.73 R1: 56.03 S2: 54.00 R2: 56.60 Source: WikiFX APP
  21. US Treasury noted last Friday (October 25th ) that the Federal budget deficit in the 2019 fiscal year reached its highest in 7 years, while growing revenue has been offset by increase in spending and debt payment. This has been the first time since early 1980s that US sees deficit grow for 4 straight years. The Federal budget deficit in the 2019 fiscal year expanded to US$984 billion and sits at 4.6% of the GDP. Deficit of the last fiscal year was US$779 billion, equivalence of 3.8% of the GDP. While government income is up by 4% at US$3.5 trillion,spending has grown by 8.2% to US$4.4 trillion. US economy registered a 2.9% growth in 2018, yet the economy is losing momentum as stimulating effect of the 1.5 trillion tax cut scheme fades. The prolonged trade war between China and the US hurts business investment, while there has been increased spending in Medicare, Social Security and military. In addition, the country also faces the challenges of an aging population, while spending on social security, federal medicare and pension scheme at the current level is unsustainable.From a long term perspective, a constantly expanding fiscal deficit will weaken the dollar for sure. USD daily pivot points: 97.75---97.79 S1: 97.64 R1: 97.87 S2: 97.54 R2: 98.00 Source: WikiFX App
  22. With the rapid development of the global forex industry, numerous forex brokers of mixed quality also emerge on the market. The illegal brokers without proper qualifications always disguise themselves as compliant brokers through false advertising, and through illicit practices and manipulations they swallow up investors’ assets and undermine the healthy development of the forex circle. Exposure of illegal broker Broker’s name: BDG Complainant: Mr. Zhu This March, Mr. Zhu first learned about the broker BDG through the recommendation of its IB agent, Mr. Sun, and made 2 deposits totaling US$ 7,000 at the platform. But 6 months later, Mr. Zhu lost more than half of his money instead of making any profits, with only US$ 1,700 left in his account. What’s more, something weird also happened when Mr. Zhu applied to withdraw. According to Mr. Zhu, he filed a withdrawal application nearly a month ago, but 2 weeks after he submitted the application, it strangely “disappeared” from the platform and Mr. Zhu had to apply again. The long wait and irregularities in the withdrawal process raised Mr. Zhu’s suspicion that the broker may have escaped. Analysis BDG claims on its official website that it holds IFSC (Belize)’s license with regulatory number IFSC/60/496/FX/17. With a broad business scope, the broker allegedly enables investors to trade a wide range of assets including forex margin, equities on Belize and international stock markets, securities, and cash. Its forex margin services covers currencies, commodities and CFD trading. But we wonder if the broker is telling the truth, particularly about its regulatory status. After inserting the full name of BDG on IFSC’s website, we did find a regulatory record of the broker, yet it turns out that the IFSC license held by BDG is for general financial consultancy/advisory services, which means the broker isn’t authorized to offer trading in forex, securities, cash or equities. Moreover, the broker’s official site doesn’t match the registered website on IFSC, and this self-claimed “top achiever of international finance industry”, strangely enough, doesn’t even have an introduction and web page in English. Summary According to WikiFX App, BDG is unregulated at the moment and rated at only 1.41. Network diagram of the broker suggests it has 12 related white-label brokers, among which 3 hold suspected cloned license, 3 operate in overrun business, 2 are unregulated and one is illegal. Investors should definitely stay away from this broker to avoid investment risks. Conclusion The forex market is full of risks, and for inexperienced investors, the greatest risk could come from brokers. WikiFX reminds investors that when choosing a broker, in addition to considering its reputation on the market, it’s also a good idea to do further research and get comprehensive information about the broker, such as whether its claimed regulatory details match with information on the regulation website, whether its license is valid and whether it operates in overrun business. If you have any questions about any broker, you can easily look it up on WikiFX App and avoid potential risks.
  23. Latest statistics released last Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) suggests that by October 22nd, net long positions for non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures traded by speculators dropped by 6,226 contracts to 31,000 contracts, declining for the 3rd week in a row. On the other hand, USD has been in bearish territory for 76 weeks straight since May, 2018. Four other currencies have experienced substantial changes of over 10,000 contracts either long or short within the week. The yen positions fell sharply for the second week, as net short rose by 11,000 and totaled 18,000 contracts. Previously the yen had been in bullish trend from the beginning of August to early October. For other major currencies, more than 20,000 net long contracts were added in both euro and pound, while net short in euro and pound fell by 25,000 contracts and 20,000 contracts respectively, indicating a change of speculators’ attitude after UK and EU reached agreement on a new Brexit deal. Source: WikiFX App
  24. Gold continues to rise under the influence of global economic uncertainties and deficit spending, and is expected to hit a record height of US$ 2,000/ounce in 2-3 years. Sean Boyd, Chief Executive Officer of Agnico Eagle Mines notes that gold benefits from easing monetary policies when governments focus on spending and budget deficits. China and India has been the main consumers since the 1970s, with the central banks as the largest buyers. Meanwhile, trade tension and sluggish global economic growth help boost demand for gold as a save-haven asset, with gold price up by 17% year to now. The Canadian gold producer’s earning and revenue released on Wednesday exceeded the prediction of analysts, as gold production climbed to a quarterly record of 476,937 ounces. Agnico also increased its previous estimation for gold production in 2019 from 1.75 million ounces to 1.77-1.78 million ounces, while expecting an annual production of about 1.9-2.0 million in 2020. Meanwhile, Agnico raised its 2019 capital costs estimate to US$790 million from previous guidance of US$750 million. Source : WikiFX
  25. US dollar dropped against euro last week after September’s retail sales data turned out lower than market expectation, with total retail sales down by 0.3% and core retail sales down by 0.1%. On the other hand, euro soared to its highest in 7 weeks after Britain and EU agreed on a new Brexit deal. But as the Parliament postponed Saturday’s poll to gain more time for further discussion over details, there remains much uncertainty for UK’s withdrawal from European Union, and the market is closely observing how the pound sterling and the euro will go. The European Central Bank announced its interest rate decision and plans for the future, while the resigning President Mario Draghi spoke at his last press conference after the ECB’s monetary policy meeting. Christine Lagarde, appointed by ECB to succeed Mr. Draghi’s position as President, will officially assume office on November 1st. Weak inflation and downslope trend rising from global trade tensions continue to weigh on the economy of the Eurozone, and the public holds great expectation for Ms. Lagarde. Former head of IMF, she is now the first female president in ECB’s history and the only female among ECB’s 25 Executive Board members. ECB had tried to tackle the economic slump with a series of unconventional monetary policies, which are now eventually showing their side effects on the stability of the banking industry and the whole financial system. Ms. Lagarde noted during a recent interview that “ In face of a coming recession, Europe, particularly the Eurozone needs to do more to stabilize the economy and strengthen the foundation of development and financial security through measures such as consolidating the banking union, building a more comprehensive European securities market and improving the fiscal space shared by Eurozone members.” The market is closely following ECB’s monetary policy package to revive Eurozone’s economy which was slowed down due to US trade policies. As the market anticipates the next moves of ECB’s new leader and the Brexit deadline is drawing near, both the GBP and EUR are likely to experience major ups and downs. WikiFX will closely follow the latest market trends and bring you more forex updates. You can view more forex news and market trends from WikiFX Newsflash.