US long term debt rating downgraded from AAA to AA+ by S&P US loses AAA rating due to political risk and rising debt burden • Last Friday (5 August) after the US market close, Standard & Poor's, one of the three major credit rating agencies, downgraded the US long-term sovereign credit rating by one notch from AAA to AA+. • S&P's outlook on the US long-term rating is also negative which means that there is a possibility of a further downgrade to "AA" within the next 24 months. • However, the short-term US debt rating was unchanged at A-1+. The writing was already on the wall of an impending S&P downgrade when the 2 August deal between US lawmakers could only reduce the US budget deficit (over a decade) by at most US$ 2.4trn, well short of the US$ 4trn S&P was looking for in order to affirm US long term rating of AAA. However, the timing of the downgrade could not have come at a worse time when the global equity markets suffered one of the worst weeks amidst global growth worries and festering Euro area sovereign debt crisis that is now threatening Spain and Italy. •Our assessment is that market will be nervous in the coming days, trying to quantify the damage of the downgrade. Both equities and FX markets will be choppy. Israel market was down 7% yesterday, while NZ equity down more than 3% as of writing. Nikkei down 1%. •Key areas to watch include haircut in the $4trn repo market, and possible bail-out in money market funds and possible liquidity disruption. So far, they look manageable, but indirect effects are always difficult to quantify. Meanwhile, foreign central banks have so far affirmed their support for US treasuries. •In all, the short-term price action will be higher yields -- especially at the longer-end. Longer-term, credit downgrade will steepen the yield curve, especially with QE3 in the radar screen. •Keep watch on Moody's and Fitch, which could change the equation dramatically. Not merely economics, it was politics S&P explained that the recent (2 August) fiscal consolidation plan (of at least US$2.1trn in savings over ten years) by the US Congress and the Administration fell short of their expectations of what "would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term dynamics." In addition, the recent political brinkmanship that was played out before the US managed to secure a last-minute deal to increase the debt ceiling limit to avert a default, has put serious doubt that US lawmakers can work towards "a broader fiscal consolidation plan that stabilizes the debt dynamics any time soon." S&P cited that the battle over the debt ceiling showed that the US policy making was becoming 'less stable, less effective and less predictable than it has previously believed'. The $2trn debate... But? The US Treasury Department which was given the S&P report before the official release claimed that the analysis done by S&P had overestimated discretionary spending by US$ 2trn. S&P acknowledged its calculation error but still released the report after a few hours of delay as they explained that the overestimation does not alter the fact the US debt to GDP ratio would continue to increase over the next ten years. Capital Weightings... What has changed? The US Federal Reserve subsequently issued a joint press release on the same day (with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the National Credit Union Administration, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency), that "for risk-based capital purposes, the risk weights for Treasury securities and other securities issued or guaranteed by the US government, government agencies, and government-sponsored entities will not change." The statement also noted that "the treatment of Treasuries and other securities issued or guaranteed by the US government, government agencies, and government-sponsored entities under other federal banking agency regulations …will also be unaffected." After S&P, all eyes will be on Moody's and Fitch ratings After the US government debt deal was signed into law on 2 August, the other two major rating agencies, Moody's and Fitch Ratings affirmed US triple A rating but pointed that more was needed to reduce the ballooning US budget deficit. Moody's affirmed the US AAA rating but put its sovereign debt on negative outlook which makes it possible to downgrade within the next 12 to 18 months. As part of the debt ceiling deal, another USD 1.5trn worth of deficit reduction, including from entitlement and tax reform, is need to be agreed upon by the newly created Joint Selection Committee on Deficit Reduction by 23 November. If this committee fails to agree on a deficit reduction plan of between USD 1.2-1.5trn by 23 November, we believe that would be a clear opportunity for Moody's to join S&P for a US downgrade although an earlier move ahead of November cannot be ruled out. We also cannot rule out another S&P downgrade in November should the new committee continue the political antics that plagued the debt ceiling limit crisis of 2 August. Meanwhile, Fitch did not rule out putting US debt on negative outlook as well when it concludes its review of the United States at the end of August, so that is something to watch out for. Impact of the downgrade on US treasuries? To assess the effects of a US sovereign rating downgrade on its US Treasuries (UST) is not that straight forward. To begin with, the US was never downgraded ever since it was given it AAA rating status since 1941. More importantly, the greenback is both the reserve currency of the world, as well as the asset of last resort. Essentially, while negative for US assets market, if there is any major meltdown, adding on the problems in the European space, and the lack of alternatives, US treasuries could well be the eventual beneficiary. The risk aversion environment the global economy is in right now adds to the complication, and that there is no substitute (or even near substitute) that is as broad and deep as the UST markets (estimated to be more than US$35trn as at end March 2011, according to Securities Industry And Financial Markets Association or SIFMA). Last Thursday price action clearly indicated this, when US DJI fell more than 500 points, USD actually appreciated on safe haven flows, and US 2-yr yields traded lower. How will financial markets pan out over the next few days? For now, we hypothesized that a US rating downgrade to AA could lead to a kneejerk spike up in UST yields but the subsequent flee to safe haven assets could press the UST yields back lower again, and the brunt of the downgrade would actually be borne by a sharp correction in equity markets, industrial commodity prices, and risk-related FX (such as EUR and AUD). There will not be an immediate or even medium term UST sell-off due to a lack of similar substitutes for funds to move into. Central banks (ex Fed Reserve) should be increasing their pace of passive diversification away from UST holdings and gold (and hence gold prices) could be a clear winner in this diversification process (Gold futures at record high of US$ 1695/ounce this morning, 8 August). Other safe haven assets could also likely to continue to see inflows including JPY and CHF (at a record low of 0.7593 against the USD this morning, 8 August). And countries whose debt remains at the coveted AAA status could see increased demand and these countries include UK, France, Germany, Australia, and even Asian economies like Hong Kong and Singapore. In the longer term, with the US debt being rated lower at AA+, investors will demand a higher interest to hold US debt and we should expect benchmark long term interest rates to increase. We think it may rise by 0.5-1.0 percentage point. According to SIFMA, they estimated it will add 0.7 percentage point to UST yields and that will translate roughly US$100bn of additional funding costs to be borne by the US government. Watch risk of QE3... and how the US yield curve will shape out? The other complication is the much talked about QE3 by the Fed. How would it affect US yield curve, amid the downgrade? Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy tool used by some central banks to stimulate the economy when conventional monetary policy via interest rates has been exhausted. QE is implemented by the central bank's purchase of financial assets (for example US Treasuries) from banks with newly created money, thereby increasing the excess reserves in the banking system. And it will also keep the UST well demanded and the yields will be pressured lower -- at least the short-end. Thus, if we have to make a call, it would be lower short-end, while higher yields for longer-dated reflecting the credit downgrade. Potential liquidity shock? Higher collateral demands in repo market, and leverage implication This is one of the channels that we are a little worried, as it could affect global liquidity situation. In the US$4trn repo markets, US Treasuries are the primary form of collateral pledged by borrowers. With the downgrade of the US sovereign rating, it is likely that a larger haircut will be demanded on these securities as lenders will require more UST as collateral for the same amount of cash. Accordingly to various fixed income investors, haircuts for USTs in repos are estimated to be around 2%. Estimation is that haircut could be increased by 1% point to around 3%. Also, the impact of this haircut will reduce leverage by banks as they have to post more collateral than before. Sell-off by Money Market Mutual Funds? Reportedly, that S&P has maintained the US short-term debt of at AAA, the $2.6trn money market mutual fund industry should not suffer from extended major sell-out. But, short-term knee jerk reaction should not be a surprise. Responses from major central banks: Still supportive of US treasuries One of the key risk is perception of global investors, given that foreigners hold more than 30% of US Treasuries, and 60% of global FX reserves are held in USD. So far, the responses from some of the central banks over the weekend remains supportive of holding US government debt. According to Bank of Korea, it sees no big impact on US rating downgrade while a senior Japan government official noted that there is no change in Japan's trust in US Treasuries and UST remains an attractive investment. Australia also warned against over-reacting to the US downgrade. China, by far was the most vocal of the US government's management of its finances, saying that the US needs to cure its "addiction" to debt. According to Japanese sources, there will be a G7 finance ministers teleconference as early as Monday (8 August) to deliberate on the US downgrade and the European debt situation. It's all about liquidity and lack of alternatives Perhaps, one key factor is the lack of alternatives. So far, S&P has given 18 sovereign entities its top ranking, including Australia, Hong Kong, UK, etc. To begin with, S&P has made clear that the difference between AA+ and AAA is only a small degree. By definition, AA means 'a very strong capacity to meet financial commitments', as opposed to AAA of 'extremely strong' to meet financial commitments. Meanwhile, other countries such as France and Germany are still holding onto their AAA rating but remained bogged down by issues in the European space. UK and Switzerland are implicated by the economic growth prospect of Europe as well. Asia is holding well, but liquidity and depth of these markets cannot be compared with the US treasuries. Key events to look out for this week from the US There will be several events to watch out for this coming week that may determine the damage inflicted by the S&P downgrade. • On Monday (8 August), S&P will release the credit ratings for financial entities that are backed by the US government (including Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac). • On Tuesday (9 August), the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds its scheduled meeting and monetary policy decision, the first policy decision right after the downgrade. • Gauging the appetite for longer dated US sovereign debt, there will be a US$ 32bn 3-year note auction on 10 August, a US$24bn 10-year note auction on 11 August, and a US$ 16bn 30-year bond auction on 12 August.