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Guest Wendy Poh

Will 3-Month Sibor Continue To Increase? Time To Re-Finance?

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Guest Wendy Poh

The experts have said that 3-month Sibor will continue to increase until 1.75 per cent in a year's time. I'm still within a lock-in period with my current mortgage loan, but I'm afraid I don't refinance now, I may stand to lose more in the LT. Would you pay the penalty fee and refinance now?

 

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The experts have said that 3-month Sibor will continue to increase until 1.75 per cent in a year's time. I'm still within a lock-in period with my current mortgage loan, but I'm afraid I don't refinance now, I may stand to lose more in the LT. Would you pay the penalty fee and refinance now?

Reality often forces ppls to no choice, however, as compared to 20 years ago, now ppls spoilt with choices.

Interest is sure to go up, cost of borrowing is sure to go up.

Will US up the rate in Dec?China adjusted rate downward 6 times this yr and also devalue its currency. Will USA go the opposite way?

Look at present mkt sentiment, many switch to bonds, even gov also initiated the SSB for 5 years since sept 15.

Let the lock-in expires....then see how.

The problem is the waiting sentiment that kills...why don't FED up rate small small?, let all expectations back to normal. Why Janet Yellen like to play hide & seek game?

My speculation that if USA up the rate in Dec, China would devalue its currency one more round.....philosophy? Don't 'play' with me !

 

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Guest Wendy Poh

70% chance of US Fed raising interest rate in mid Dec, following which we are probably looking at 0.25% increase per quarter. This is according to consensus views by most analysts. This means in Q4 2016, rates will probably be 1% - 1.25% higher as compared to now. I've decided to refinance with a mortgage broker to a fix rate package anyway and got really good rates. If you are interested, send me a private message.

 

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70% chance of US Fed raising interest rate in mid Dec, following which we are probably looking at 0.25% increase per quarter. This is according to consensus views by most analysts. This means in Q4 2016, rates will probably be 1% - 1.25% higher as compared to now. I've decided to refinance with a mortgage broker to a fix rate package anyway and got really good rates. If you are interested, send me a private message.

Consensus? Or join the crowd?

The analysts failed to see the GFC in 2007.

They also failed to anticipate the oil price dip.

The credit rating agencies seem only 'work' overnight after things happened.

Days ago MAS advised: to make partial payment.... Read FSR 2015.

http://www.mas.gov.sg/~/media/resource/publications/fsr/FSR%202015.pdf

As understood (was told, but yet to read any script), MAS instructed financial institutions and Singapore EUR account holders to stop EUR circulation within Singapore from 1 Oct 2015. Why?, I don't speculate here, anyway, no fire without smoke.

Read ECB since March/2015, till Sept/2016, print EUR 60Bil/monthly. The EUR printing machine still running.

Since Dec 2008, FED has been keeping the low interest rate between 0-0.25%.

USA's Labor market conditions index plunged from 0% to -40% from 2007 to 2009.

To stimulate speending and borrowing, USD printing machines very busy then in 11/2008, 11/2010 & 9/2012...then the FED has been hitting the gong and shouting 'wolves are coming' but till now no wolves seen.

Don't forget why happened in UK (GBP)about the money printing - 3/2009, 10/2011, 2/2012 & 7/2012.

Japan joined in the JPY printing game - 10/2010...

Don't forget, the USD/EUR/GBP/JPY are the four major recognised reserved currencies in IMF's basket definition. China's RMB is likely to be in the basket next Sept.

Interestingly, while the major 4 ecomonics print money, China adjusted downward its interest rate 6th time within this year (2015) and devalue its currency recently shaking the financial markets....IMF started seriously look into accpeting RMB into the basket....what do these tell? Why the devalue timing so 'chun', why the recent financial actions by China?

We have experienced 1997 Asia FC, the SARS crisis (2003), as well as GFC (2007 onwards...), and we are now experiencing the worse-than SARS economic situation......the car/property rulings impede the $ multiplier effect, the per-month-SGD1.2B SSB 'suck' away the 'excess' cash in the market......

USA yet to decide interest hike after 16/12/2015.

To cut the story short and sharp:

My personal speculation that China would 'throw something out from sleeve' if USA were to increase interest rate.

Also, there is/are no benefit/s for USA to increase the interest rate now, she would get hurt first, other than the 'face' issue.

The markets are sick of the 'wolves are coming' shouting.

If I were Janet Y, perhaps just increase a 1 basic point (0.01%) wind up the long soap-opera and then everyone go home safe and happy.

Edited by bepgof
 

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Since IMF already accepted RMB in SDR basket, unlikely China will play play with her counterparts this time.

Look rather set FED would up 25 basic point after 16/12. But....its export would be worsen off...

Its products and services already so expensive... who would buy and consume?

Equity markets will have minimum kneel jerk effect since the 'wolves are coming' message has been set many times.

But again, look like each country has to intensify its own domestic market consumption....

 

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Sibor is likely to stay low for some time. Always take on the riskier option, since the banks always price in risk and they are much better than us in predicting interest rates.

 

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