CHF Has Surged to a Crucial Level

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Yesterday, EUR/CHF exchange rate fell to 1.0732, the lowest level since April, 2017. Prior to this, the U.S. government had again put Switzerland to its currency manipulator watch-list. Economic growth and inflation data may still prompt the SNB to increase foreign exchange to curb appreciation of Swiss franc.

Data of Swiss National Bank(SNB) last August showed that the bank injected billions of Swiss francs into the market and bought foreign currencies in order to curb the surge of the Swiss franc. A stronger Swiss franc will make it more difficult for Swiss companies to export products.

Since the SNB removed the cap on Swiss franc and introduced a negative interest rate 5 years ago, the strength of the Swiss franc means that it is almost impossible to end the negative interest rate in the short term.

on Monday, traders have braced themselves for fluctuations of CHF in the coming weeks. The one-month implied volatility of the euro against the Swiss franc rose 11 basis points to 4.27% on Wednesday, the highest level in nearly two months.

If the EUR/ CHF fall below 1.10, it may trigger the central bank’s intervention, making the SNB active again. A strong Swiss franc could be a more serious challenge for the SNB. The central bank is now under the market’s test of whether it can curb further appreciation of the currency. As the US economy slows down, market demand for safe-haven currencies seems to increase. The Japanese yen and Swiss francs should be the main choices for capitals seeking to hedge risks.

Edited January 17, 20206 yr by Anzo Lim